The ruling PTI in KPK is expected to win at least 06 seats out of 16 in tribal districts elections as all the opposition political parties are on solo flight for the polls taking place on July 20. The PTI is likely to win PK-100, PK-103, PK-105, PK-109, PK-111 and PK-114 constituencies. The internal fighting will cast PTI minimum 4 seats.
The independent candidates are expected to win at least 05 seats. JUI-F is expected to win 04 seats while JI one seat.
The real contest seems to be between PTI, JUI-F and independent candidates. The PTI is facing tough contest on some seats from strong candidates both from political parties and independents. PTI candidates are facing strong resistance from their own rebel leaders on at least three seats. It is not easy to predict the outcome of this election. The people will cast their ballots for the first time so it is not easy to determine and analyse the political trends.
PTI emerged as the leading party in the tribal districts in the July 25, 2018 general elections one year ago. PTI won 06 out of 12 national assembly seats. JUI-F remained the runner up with 03 seats and three seats went to independent candidates. PML-N, ANP and PPP failed to win a single seat. PTI has the advantage of KPK provincial government in KPK.
However, divisions and internal rifts likely to cause setback to the ruling political party just like the October 2018 by-elections in KP in which PTI had lost five seats out of nine which it had won in the general elections. The reason for PTI loss was mainly the presence of two or more than two PTI candidates contesting from the same constituency. The by-elections result data shows that PTI candidates contesting on party tickets or independent had secured more votes combined than the winning candidates.
The party is facing the same situation in the tribal districts’ elections, where on nine out of 16 seats of provincial assembly, more than two candidates are using the PTI slogans. And the party has great chances of winning elections here if united.
Bajaur has three provincial assembly seats and PTI has strong vote bank in the district.
In PK-100, the PTI candidate Anwar Zeb Khan is likely to win this seat as he is popular in the constituency. He is facing JI candidate in this constituency. PTI candidate seems in a strong position.
On PK 101, PTI nominated Engineer Ajmal Khan on this seat. He is the brother of sitting PTI MNA Gul Dad Khan. He is facing tough contest from independent candidate Haji Sayed Ahmad Khan. JI candidate is also has some influence in certain areas. The real contest is between PTI candidate and independent. Haji Sayed Ahmad Khan expected to win this seat.
In PK-102, real contest is between PTI candidate Dr. Hanif- ur- Rehman and JI candidate Siraj-u-Din. JI candidate seems in a position in this constituency. JI has strong presence in the Bajaur district.
Mohmand district has two constituencies PK-103 and PK-104.
In PK-103, a neck to neck contest is expected between PTI candidate Qari Rahim Shah and ANP’s Nisar Mohmand. The PTI expected to win this seat.
In PK- 104, the situation is quite interesting. PTI candidate Sajjad Mohmand is facing another PTI rebel Dr. Israr Safi contesting as independent candidate. Another independent candidate Muhammad Abbas also enjoys considerable support in the constituency. Dr. Israr Safi seems in strong position.
Khyber district has three seats PK-105, PK-106 and PK-107.
On the PK-105, PTI candidate Shahid Shinwari is facing an independent candidate Sharamat Khan Afridi supported by PTI federal Minister for Religious affairs Noorul Haq Qadari. The minister is openly opposing the party candidate. The real contest is between PTI and two independent candidates. Shahid Shinwari of PTI seems in better position.
On PK-106, the three way contest is expected on this seat between PTI candidate Ameer Khan, independent candidate Khan Sher and another independent candidate Bilawal Gul. Bilawal is the son of former MNA Shahjee Gul. Bilawal seems in better position in this constituency.
On PK-107, PTI candidate Zubair Khan is facing close contest from former federal minister, MNA and Senator Hameedullah Jan who is contesting as independent candidate. Hameedullah seems in better position to win this seat.
Kurram district has two provincial assembly constituencies PK-108 and PK-109.
On PK-108, the real contest seems between PTI candidate Shahid Bangash, JUI-F candidate Riaz Shaheed and independent candidate Malik Saifullah. JUI-F candidate seems in better position in this constituency.
On PK-109, PTI candidate Iqbal Main seems in strong position. The independent candidate Ibrar Jan and Inayat Hussain is giving him tough time. PTI expected to win this seat.
Orakzai district has only one seat PK-110. Independent candidate Ghazan Jamal seems in a better position to clinch this seat. He is facing tough competition from PTI candidate Jawad Hussain. Very close contest expected on this seat.
North Waziristan district
North Waziristan has two seats PK-111 and PK-112.
On PK-111, PTI candidate Muhammad Iqbal Khan has an advantage against his rival candidates. JUI-F candidate Qari Samiullah is not far behind. A close contest expected between these two candidates. Independent candidate Jamal Dawar can give surprise in this constituency. PTI is expected to win this seat after a close contest.
On PK-112, independent candidate Mir Kalam seems in better position on this seat. Close fight expected from PTI and JUI-F candidates.
South Waziristan district
South Waziristan has two provincial assembly seats PK-113 and PK-114.
On PK-113, JUI-F candidate seems in strong position and expected to win this seat. PTI candidate Asfar Khan seems in weak position.
On PK-114, PTI seems in better position to win this seat. JUI-F and independent candidates are expected to give tough time to PTI.
PK-115 is the largest constituency area-wise that includes all FRs – FR Peshawar, FR Kohat, FR Bannu, FR Lakki Marwat, FR Dera Ismail Khan and FR Tank – which makes the constituency impossible to cover during elections campaign.
JUI-F candidate Haji Shoaib Akhtar seems in strong position. PTI candidate Obaid-ur-Rehman is giving him tough time. JUI-F candidate is more likely to win this seat.
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