The new prime minister of UK Boris Johnson has announced a no deal Brexit in October. He made it clear that whether a Brexit deal reached or not with EU before October 2019, the UK will leave European Union. A no deal Brexit could create the conditions for a snap election in UK.
It will be a big gamble for Conservative party. It can backfire as it happened when Theresa May decided to hold snap elections. Her decision was backfired as she failed to increase its seats in the parliament. It was rather labour party who increased its strength in the parliament. So it will be hard decision to make.
The senior leaders of Tory party are seriously considering the option of snap elections in the end of 2019 or earlier 2020. The ruling Tory party leaders also think that Jeremy Corbyn’s presence as a labour leader will help them to secure victory in the snap elections. The possibility of a general election has increased in the recent months.
The UK media has reported that Johnson’s team was keen to get an election in soon amid “fears Mr Corbyn could step down and be replaced by a new leader who is more popular with the public”.
If the Tory party decided to go for a snap election after delivering a no deal Brexit then it might be able to win over the support of Brexit supporters. The people wanted to end the Brexit debate and move forward to face the challenges of it. The Brexit party might be real causality of a snap election.
According to the schedule set out in the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the next general election should take place on the first Thursday in May in the fifth year of each Parliament, which is 05 May 2022.
However, a general election can be called earlier, if a motion to do so is approved by at least two-thirds of MPs, a so-called “supermajority”.
An election can also be triggered through a vote of no confidence in a government. If the motion passes, MPs have two weeks to try and assemble a new government that can secure the backing of the House. If a confidence vote is not passed within this 14-day period, a general election must follow.
The consensus until recently was that the Tory party would do anything to avoid a general election, with the prospect of submitting their performance to a public vote one that strikes fear into the hearts of many Tory MPs. British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt put it bluntly: “If we attempt a general election before we have delivered Brexit we will be annihilated.”
Attacked by the Brexit Party on the Right and the Liberal Democrats on the Left, we will face extinction,” Hunt warned, adding that any candidate running on the promise of an imminent general election is “offering a prospectus for disaster”.
Many commentators believe senior Tories would rather put up with a restless electorate than face the very real possibility of wipeout at the polls if an election is called before Britain’s departure from the EU.
There will also be pressure on Johnson to seek a new mandate from the wider electorate.
Johnson himself complained about Gordon Brown’s lack of “mandate from the British people” when he replaced Tony Blair as Labour PM in 2007. He described the transition as a “scandal” and “nothing less than a palace coup”. However, this was a decade before Theresa May gambled on a snap general election and lost her majority.
The labour party is already denuding a snap election. The labour wanted elections before the Brexit. But Tory party is not in favour of a snap election before the Brexit.
According to the latest surveys and polls, both Labour and Tories will not be able to win simple majority to form its own government. The Labour Party has a slight edge over Conservative party at the moment. The two parties are still neck and neck as they were last year, but now enjoy a much smaller proportion of support. The Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats are in a much stronger position since the European elections earlier this year. Both parties surged in the polls recently. It reflects the sharp divide that exists in the British society at the moment. Liberal Democrats are staunch pro-EU but on the other hand, Brexit party is staunch anti-EU. Both parties enjoying support in the respective constituencies.
Both parties hold an uncompromising position on Brexit, and their support comes almost exclusively from those on one side or other of the Brexit debate. Both parties will need partners to form the government. The Labour will need the support of SNP and Tory party might need Liberal democrats or Brexit party.
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27 September, 2019