Joe Biden has maintained his lead over Trump in crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania Less than a week before Election Day on November 03 in the latest opinion polls released this week. Pennsylvania has become crucial state for both Trump and Biden to clinch 270 electoral votes.
If President Trump pulls off a come-from-behind victory on Nov. 3, it’s likely to run through Pennsylvania — one of the three states he won by less than one percentage point in 2016, and arguably the one that’s still within range for him. It is a must win state for Trump to retain the presidency.
Pennsylvania has emerged as the most likely tipping-point state: Both Trump and Biden are advertising heavily and making frequent visits, with an eye on the state’s 20 electoral votes. But Biden remains the favorite there: He holds a 7-point lead in public polling averages and is sitting at 51 percent.
Biden led Trump by 8 points among likely voters, 51% to 43%, in a Quinnipiac University poll; by 10 points, 53% to 43% in a CNN Poll; and by 7 points, 49% to 42%, in a USA Today and Suffolk University Poll.
In the Quinnipiac poll, Biden’s lead over Trump was 5 points lower than his 54%-41% advantage earlier in the month. But the difference was within the poll’s margin of error and the 8-point lead matched Biden’s advantage before the first presidential debate.
All three surveys put the president Trump’s job approval rating in negative territory: 53% disapproving and 44% approving in Quinnipiac, 54% disapproving and 44% approving in the CNN poll and 53% to 43% in USA Today/Suffolk.
Likewise, President Trump got low marks for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the Quinnipiac poll, 56% disapproved and 42% approved. In the USA Today/Suffolk survey, 52% rated his response as poor while 11% rated it as fair, 18% as excellent and another 18% as good.
“That post-debate bounce that boosted Joe Biden’s lead to double-digits has fizzled, rewinding the race in Pennsylvania to where it was in September,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Mary Snow said.
Biden’s support remains above 50% as President Trump tries to change the trajectory in a crucial state where he receives poor grades on his job performance and his handling of the coronavirus response.”
The Quinnipiac poll gave Biden had a huge edge among the 40% of Pennsylvanians who said they planned to vote by mail, 79% to 13%. Trump, who called mail in voting fraudulent despite evidence refuting those claims, led among the 60% who said they would vote in person, 63% to 32%.
The U.S. Supreme Court earlier this week allowed to stand a Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision allowing mail-in ballots received up to three days after Election Day to be counted.
Pennsylvania voters narrowly backed Trump in 2016 after supporting the Democratic candidate for six consecutive presidential elections, and both candidates are paying a lot of attention to this state in their campaigns.
In Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state pickup for both candidates, the battle for the presidency may be won or lost in Philadelphia and its suburbs — Delaware, Chester, Montgomery and Bucks counties.
Since 2008, Democrats have lost ground statewide, with former blue counties of Luzerne, Erie and Northampton ultimately flipping red in 2016. While the city of Pittsburgh has ensured that Allegheny County remains reliably Democratic, that county in western Pennsylvania has become increasingly surrounded by a sea of red.
That hasn’t been the case in the southeastern part of the state. But while the president tries to court voters there, Biden also cannot take southeastern Pennsylvania for granted.
In each of the last three presidential elections, more than one in every three Pennsylvania voters cast their ballots in Philadelphia and the four surrounding counties of Delaware, Chester, Montgomery and Bucks.
Propelling Biden are voters’ disapproval of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, concerns over affordable health care, as well as changing demographics in the suburbs, where the president’s “law and order” rhetoric is not resonating as much as he might want and in fact possibly driving voters toward Biden, according to Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray.
He pointed to polling that shows Biden leading Trump by a widening margin in Pennsylvania as a sign of hope for Democrats. The latest Monmouth poll shows Biden leading Trump by 12 points among all registered voters, and anywhere between 8 and 11 points among likely voters.
In the five-county Philadelphia region, Democrats have gained more than 72,000 registered voters since 2016. Meanwhile, Republicans have lost more than 7,500 in those counties during that same time.
The roughly 64,500-person difference in registered voters between Democrats and Republicans within the Philadelphia region may seem small compared to the more than 6.1 million Pennsylvanians who cast a ballot in the 2016 presidential race, but the figure is critical in a state Trump won only by some 44,000 votes.
If President Trump pulls off a come-from-behind victory on Nov. 3, it’s likely to run through Pennsylvania — one of the three states he won by less than one percentage point in 2016, and arguably the one that’s still within range for him.
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