ACE News election cell predicted the hung assembly and PML-N majority in Punjab Assembly before the elections. We proved right on both projections. PML-N gets 6 seats less than our predictions and PTI got 15 more seats. PTI got more seats from North Punjab than we anticipated. Our predictions went wrong on Attock, Rawalpindi, Chakwal and Jhelum. Our predictions on Faisalabad also went wrong on both national and provincial assembly seats.
But our predictions were generally correct as the PML-N emerged as largest party in Punjab Assembly and a hung assembly. Both PTI and PML-N are claiming to form the provincial government in Punjab. The numbers in Punjab are indicating that it will be difficult for both PTI and PML-N to form a stable government.
PTI has 123 seats in the provincial assembly and its ally PML-Q has 7 seats so the total goes to 130 seats but it still needs 18 more seats to get the simple majority. PTI needs at least 18 independents out of 27 to form the government. On the other hand, PML-N has 128 seats and it can get 6 from PPP to make it 134. But it still needs 14 more seats to form the government. PML-N needs 14 independents to get the simple majority.
If PPP decided to support PTI in Punjab then it will become easier for PTI to form the government. In both cases, the government will depend on independents and small party to keep the government a float.
PTI has made big gains in Punjab. It had 30 seats in the last assembly but now it won 123 seats. PTI has made the net gain of 93 seats. PML-N had 218 seats in the last assembly but now it has 128 seats. PML-N lost 100 seats in July 25 elections.
It seems that both PML-N and PTI will do whatever is possible for them to do to form the government in Punjab. Both parties have the right to try to get majority but this effort should not hurt the democracy and its spirit. Some people are talking about the possibility of a forward block in PML-N Punjab parliamentary party. Such step will be wrong and will weaken the democracy and political process. It will also damage the reputation of PTI as party of change and Naya Pakistan. Such things must not be repeated.
Whoever forms the government in Punjab will definitely face a strong opposition. Such a strong opposition will make the life of the government constantly hard.
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21 August, 2019